The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts that the Indian economy will expand by 9 per cent in 2021 and by 7 per cent in 2022.
“Growth will naturally slow as India becomes more economically developed, with the annual GDP growth expected to sink to 5.8 per cent in 2035.”
“This growth trajectory will see India become the world’s third largest economy by 2030, overtaking the UK in 2025, Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030,” it said.
The UK-based think tank forecast that China will in 2028 overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Japan would remain the world’s third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.
The CEBR said India’s economy had been losing momentum even ahead of the shock delivered by the COVID-19 crisis.
The rate of GDP growth sank to a more than ten-year low of 4.2 per cent in 2019, down from6.1 per cent the previous year and around half the 8.3 per cent growth rate recorded in 2016.
India had overtaken the UK in 2019 to become the fifth largest economy in the world but has been relegated to 6th spot in 2020.